貿易通2019 年年報

Chairman’s Statement (Continued) 主席報告書 （續） 二零一九年年報 貿易通電子貿易有限公司 09 前景 於二零二零年初，美國與中國內地達成第一階段 貿易協議，但環球經濟增長尚未改善，外在環境 仍面臨各種挑戰。就本地而言，經濟學家及研究 人員警告，全球需求疲弱、華府與北京縈繞不去 的爭議關係、中國經濟放緩、貿易壁壘不斷提高 及製造業轉移，凡此種種都會對香港的增長造成 不利影響，我們的經濟前景將繼續受到不確定性 困擾。 更甚的是，臨近二零一九年年底，新型冠狀病毒 疫症開始爆發，傳播至中國境外，在中國及全球 各國引起恐慌。疫症響起警號，環球經濟可能遭 受另一次打擊。全球經濟如何回應疫症爆發存在 很大不確定性，視乎疫症嚴重程度、傳播程度及 爆發持續時間而定。對中國而言，疫症打擊與十 年來最慢經濟增長兩面夾擊。儘管一些分析人員 相信新型冠狀病毒可能只會造成暫時衝擊，不一 定有長遠影響，然而，影響程度及恢復時間主要 取決於疫症發展，惟現階段仍是未知之數。即使 新型冠狀病毒爆發比二零零三年 SARS 更快受控， 亦最少會有相似程度的經濟影響，甚至更為嚴重。 展望未來，鑒於環球經濟存在種種不確定因素， 加上本地社會問題尚未完全平息，對香港而言， 二零二零年看似將會較去年更為嚴峻。本集團不 能於艱難經營環境中獨善其身，亦無法料知最壞 時間何時過去。於此階段，宏觀商界，二零二零 年的前景仍不明朗，未知政府會否有任何更多經 濟措施出台，而有關政策是否有效協助香港業界 渡過經濟不景氣及克服新型冠狀病毒疫症帶來進 一步加劇的經濟衰退。一言蔽之，我們已做好準 備，二零二零年會頗為慘淡。我們會時刻警惕， 不遺餘力實行嚴格成本控制，加倍努力在可能情 況下為所有業務分部探求新收益機遇。 Prospects While the US and mainland China have reached a first-phase trade agreement in early 2020, global economic growth has yet to improve and the external environment is still subject to various challenges. Locally, economists and researchers warn that our economic outlook will continue to be afflicted by uncertainties with the softening of global demand, the lingering contentious relationship between Washington and Beijing, China’s economic slowdown, rising trade barriers as well as shifts in manufacturing, all of which will adversely affect growth in Hong Kong, To make matters worse, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic starting near the end of 2019 has spread beyond China, giving rise to fear not only in China but around the world. The epidemic has provoked alarm that the world economy may be in for another shock. There is considerable uncertainty as to how the global economy might react to the outbreak which would depend on its severity, extent of its spread and the duration of the outbreak. To China, the shock is hitting just as it contends with its slowest pace of economic growth in decades. Though some analysts believed that the novel coronavirus may prove to be only a temporary shock and may not necessarily have a long-lasting impact, still, the scale of the impact and timing of the recovery would mainly be determined by the unfolding course of the epidemic, which is still unknown at this stage. Also even should the novel coronavirus outbreak be brought under control more quickly than SARS was in 2003, the economic impact would look likely to be at least on a similar scale, if not greater. Going forward, it looks like 2020 will be an even more challenging year than last year for Hong Kong given all these uncertainties over the global economy along with our local social issues which have not really been settled. The Group cannot be exempted from such a tough operating environment and we cannot predict when the worst will have passed. At this stage, for the business community at large, the prospects for 2020 remain unclear, with doubts about any further economic measures introduced by the Government and their effectiveness in helping Hong Kong businesses survive the economic downturn and overcoming the recession as further aggravated by the novel coronavirus epidemic. All in all, we are bracing ourselves for a pretty dismal 2020. We would stay vigilant and spare no effort in exercising tight cost controls and redoubling our efforts in exploring new revenue opportunities where possible for all of our business segments.