貿易通 2020 年年報

Chairman’s Statement (Continued) 主席報告書（續） 10 Tradelink Electronic Commerce Limited Annual Report 2020 前景 二零二零年，香港經濟無疑經歷了異常艱辛的一 年。二零二一年，直至撰寫本報告書之時，政府 官員、經濟學家及分析師普遍預測，在低基數 下，連續兩年衰退的香港經濟將於二零二一年恢 復正增長。此乃基於假設有效的 COVID-19 疫苗預 期於二零二一年可供廣泛使用，有助全球控制疫 情，使部份跨境活動恢復，年內全球經濟將有所 改善。然而，我們應注意，復甦之路可能頗為崎 嶇，前景仍然充滿不確定性。疫情在不久將來會 否放緩及受到遏制，將取決於能否迅速推出有效 的疫苗以及世界各地採用疫苗的速度。香港經濟 復甦的速度及力度亦將取決於內地經濟如何增長 以及其對香港出口的支持。從更宏觀的角度來 看，儘管在拜登領導下的新政府，中美關係將變 得較易預測，惟中美關係於未來仍可能面臨多個 挑戰，進一步影響市場對全球經濟的信心。總而 言之， COVID-19 疫情及政治局勢的不確定性將使 香港經濟於二零二一年的前景蒙上陰霾。 在 COVID-19 疫情造成的「新常態」下經歷艱辛的二 零二零年後，我們對迎接二零二一年的挑戰及機 遇充滿合理信心。鑑於與 COVID-19 相關的情況仍 然相當不穩定，我們將繼續適應新常態，保持警 惕及靈活多變地前進。 Prospects The Hong Kong economy undeniably experienced a very tough year in 2020. As for 2021, thus far up to the time of writing this Statement, Government officials, economists and analysts generally forecast that with a low base to come off, the Hong Kong economy will resume positive growth in 2021 after two concessive years of recession. This is based on the assumptions that the global economy will improve in 2021 as effective COVID-19 vaccines are expected to become widely available for use during the year, which should help bring the pandemic under control worldwide and allow some cross-border activities to resume. However, we should be mindful that the road to recovery is likely to be bumpy and the outlook is still full of uncertainty. Whether the epidemic can be alleviated and contained in the near future will depend on how rapidly effective vaccines can be rolled out and the speed at which they will be adopted worldwide. The speed and strength of the Hong Kong economic recovery will also be dependent on how the Mainland economy grows and the support it renders to Hong Kong’s exports. On a more macro level, though the Sino-U.S. relations are expected to be more predictable under the new Biden Administration, the relationship is still likely to face a number of challenges going forward, putting further weight on market confidence in the global economy. All in all, the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and uncertainty over the political situation will cloud the outlook of the Hong Kong economy in 202l. After a harsh 2020 under the ‘new normal’ created by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are reasonably confident about embracing the challenges and opportunities posed in 2021. We will continue to progress along with the new normal as appropriate, keeping vigilant and versatile given that the situation related to COVID-19 is still rather volatile.